Census numbers are showing 23,960 more residents between 2006 and 2007:

New York City’s population is nudging upward, according to Census Bureau estimates released yesterday.

The Census numbers show that the five boroughs gained 23,960 people between July 2006 and July 2007, a rise of 0.29%. The growth is consistent with the city’s population trends in recent years: The city gained about 40,000 people during the same period between 2005 and 2006. New York City’s population now stands at a record high, 8.275 million people, according to the Census numbers.

PlaNYC is premised on an additional one million people in New York by 2030. It uses census data and additional factors developed by the Department of City Planning, including an expectation that people will live longer and rezoning (maybe you noticed all the middle-income housing being built in newly rezoned areas?). But census estimates are tricky, and it’s unclear that the population will always continue to grow, or that there may be a built-in pressure valve regardless of how much infrastructure is created.

If the city’s population grew by 40,000 people every year for the next 22 years, we would have 880,000, and then congestion pricing would be absolutely necessary. But if the city’s population only grows by 23,960 for the next 22 years, there will only be 527,120 more people. And if these numbers actually portend a slowing of growth, then all numbers are suspect. What’s more, 2005-2006 was the highest growth in some time — if things get poopy, like they did after 2001, when the population grew by only 14,000 between 2002 and 2003, New York City will only have an additional 308,000 people. Population continually rises and falls, and unless PlaNYC can show definitively that New York will grow like it grew in 2005-2006 (and I wouldn’t trust any demographer who claims to know anything for sure), it seems foolish to move so aggressively . . .