A Transfat-Free Chicken In Every Pot And A Car In Every Garage, Provided The Bank Hasn’t Foreclosed On Your House And You Can Still Afford A Car After Your Property Taxes Go Up

One thing you want to avoid if you’re running for president is raising taxes in an election year:

The robust growth in real estate values in New York, a trend that helped fuel years of record budget surpluses and city spending, has nearly skidded to a halt, city officials said Tuesday, and that shift could bring new pressure on Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg to raise taxes.

The city estimates that when it conducts its annual valuation of all property in the city in May, it will be just 1.44 percent more than the last assessment, the smallest gain since the beginning of the Bloomberg administration.

In recent years, the city seemed insulated from dips in the national real estate market, posting several double-digit gains, including an 18 percent increase in values last year. But now, according to data from the tentative annual assessment roll, which will largely determine taxes for the fiscal year beginning in July, declining values of small homes outside Manhattan are pulling down the overall market as the effects of the country’s mortgage trouble take hold.

Precisely how the cooling market will affect revenues remains to be seen, but the data suggest that the kinds of surpluses that have allowed Mr. Bloomberg to increase spending on popular programs while saving for future costs are coming to an end. The city depends on property taxes for more than a third of its tax revenue and, given Wall Street’s woes, is already anticipating declines in income tax collections.

City budget officials declined to comment on the property numbers, but David I. Weprin, chairman of the City Council Finance Committee, said the lower assessments could lead to small increases in the tax rate or an end to the $400 property tax rebate given to homeowners for a property that is their primary residence.

“This is an indicator that we might be up for some tough fiscal times, and Wall Street isn’t helping, either,” he said. “Property values are no longer going up; they’ve stabilized, and I would expect that’s the trend we’ll see before they go down.”

George Sweeting, deputy director of the city’s Independent Budget Office, said the slowing real estate market would cost the city about $100 million in revenue, which could be made up by ending the property tax rebate, which would bring in $250 million in revenue. That change is likely to be politically unpopular.