Billions Of Dollars Of Debt For . . . Something . . . Right?

Now that we passed that big transportation bond act, funding for the much sought-after Second Avenue subway has been secured and Yorkville rental prices will soar, right? Not so fast:

As the November election approached, the mayor and other officials urged citizens to support a transportation bond issue that would allow a Second Avenue subway to be built. Planners said the project would work wonders for congestion. New York State voters went to the polls and approved the measure.

That was in 1951.

And it happened again, in 1967.

Thirty-eight years later, the scene was replayed once again on Tuesday, when the state’s voters approved, 55 percent to 45 percent, a $2.9 billion borrowing measure that officials had described as essential for the new subway line – a project that has been discussed since 1929.

With $450 million designated for the Second Avenue Subway (and the rest of the money for many other transportation projects), the Metropolitan Transportation Authority hopes to build a first segment, from East 96th to East 63rd Streets, by 2012 or so. But even supporters of the project are not holding their breath.

And you may or may not realize that they didn’t even get all the funding they need to finish the 96th Street to 63rd Street segment:

The first segment would carry 187,000 riders a day if it existed today, according to official estimates. The projected cost for the first segment is $3.8 billion. The authority budgeted $1.05 billion in its capital program for 2000 to 2004 and will have an additional $450 million, from the bond act, in its new program, for 2005 to 2009.

It hopes for a federal contribution of about $1.3 billion. But even if that best-case situation occurs, that leaves about $1 billion to be raised between now and 2012 – the estimated completion date for the first segment.

And if that doesn’t make you just a little bit skeptical, know that it’s not even clear we’ll be able to ride the first trains in 2012 (“Privately, officials concede that the first segment might not be completed until 2015”). Oy.