The Man Who Would Single-Handedly Save An Entire City From Massive Budget Deficits And Worldwide Financial Crises . . .

. . . first must gin up the numbers to make his case. Suggested protest placard — “Bloomberg Lied, Democracy Died”:

On Oct. 21, two days before the City Council voted by a thin margin to allow Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg to seek a third term, the mayor sounded an alarm on the city’s economy.

New York City’s annual budget deficit, he said, would swell by $500 million during the current fiscal year because of weakening tax revenues.

At the time, the worsening picture seemed to strengthen his central argument for changing term limits — a vulnerable city needed his steady hand and business background for four more years.

But some of those inside and outside the administration say that Mr. Bloomberg’s remarks were inaccurate and may have painted a more dire financial situation than was warranted. Interviews with these people show that the city does not expect any budget deficit in the current fiscal year, which began July 1.

In fact, data that was provided to the city about the same time the mayor was speaking showed the city’s tax revenue grew at an unexpectedly brisk pace during July, August and September.

During that time, the city took in at least $200 million more than it had planned for, data and interviews show. Much of the unexpected revenue stemmed from sales, personal income and property transfer taxes.

Of course, the city could face deficits reaching into the billions in 2010 and beyond as a result of the global financial crisis, as layoffs mount, consumer spending falls and tourism slows.

But several economists said they were mystified by Mr. Bloomberg’s statement. Marcia Van Wagner, a deputy in the New York City comptroller’s office who focuses on budget issues, said that “it is extremely unlikely that the city would end the year in deficit.”

She said that tax revenue would certainly fall later this year, but that surplus funds now slated to be used in the 2010 fiscal year could offset any shortfall this year, “as can other reserves that are normally freed up during the year,” she said.

Ms. Van Wagner also noted that the mayor has already requested $500 million worth of spending cuts from city agencies this year, which could be used to close any budget gaps.

Asked why the mayor said the city faces a deficit this year, aides said that Mr. Bloomberg may have been referring instead to his expectation that revenues would be lower than the city forecast. But even if the mayor were referring to a potential falloff in this year’s tax receipts, the $500 million number is a greater decline than what many city officials and economists predict.

Mr. Bloomberg’s Oct. 21 remarks carried significant weight, and prompted articles in The Daily News and The New York Post about the city’s worsening economy.

Both articles reported that the city’s budget deficit would swell by $500 million, and mayoral aides never sought to correct those stories.

“I can tell you,” the mayor said, “that our deficit — we originally had ’09 balanced. Now we’ve got a $500 million hole in it.”