The Entire City Budget Of Indianapolis For Fiscal Year 2009 Was About $1.1 Billion

The City Independent Budget Office’s Analysis of the Mayor’s Executive Budget for 2010 is online (.pdf) and unless they’re wrong — and they’re not running for office, so there’s no reason to bookcook — there’s still a lot of work to do on next year’s budget (and beyond, for that matter):

IBO estimates that under the Mayor’s Executive Budget plan a budget gap of $1.1 billion in 2010 remains to be closed. There are some uncertainties in the Mayor’s 2010 plan such as the proposed sales tax increases and the creation of a new pension tier to help reduce labor costs, which if Albany does not approve, could make balancing the upcoming year’s budget more difficult. In addition, contracts with the United Federation of Teachers and District Council 37 expire during 2010 and settlements could increase the level of the gap.

But the tougher challenges now appear to be in the subsequent years of the financial plan, when there is no longer a substantial surplus from the flush years of the recent past to help bridge the shortfalls and the temporary flow of federal stimulus dollars begins to dry up. IBO projects a 2011 gap of $5.6 billion, 12.9 percent of city-funded revenue, and $1.0 billion more than the Mayor estimated. Our 2012 gap of $5.8 billion is 12.7 percent of city-funded revenue, and $666 million higher than the Mayor’s estimate. Based on our forecast that recovery from the recession will be slow, IBO does not expect the financial and real estate markets to surge and boost tax revenues enough to grow our way out of these gaps.