Savor This, Because It Will Probably Never Ever Happen Again In Your Lifetime

A subway project will be completed years before it is actually necessary:

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority and the Related Companies, the real estate concern, appear to be weeks away from a final agreement on the long-delayed $15 billion redevelopment of the railyards on the Far West Side of Manhattan.

Under a deal unveiled Monday, Related would commit to the project with a $21.7 million down payment. But the company would not have to close on the project — and therefore start paying the 99-year lease — until after the city’s real estate market improves.

Here are some more details about what benchmarks constitute an “improving” real estate market (“Assuming Related signs its contract with the M.T.A., it will not have to close on the deal and thus be on the hook to start paying rent worth about $1 billion until the three triggers are hit. That kicks the can down the road some on the question of whether or not Related will indeed go ahead with the deal, which seems quite risky right now.”).

Remember, Bloomberg put everyone in debt for the $2 billion subway extension — something to think about if (when?) services are cut in the coming FY2011 budget. The argument for the bonds went that by developing the railyards, the City would recoup the costs of the extension through higher property taxes. Revenue-raising tax base-based developments may have worked in the 19th century (think Central Park), but today’s regional economy seems more like a zero-sum game (unless you really think New York City will have 1 million new residents by 2030 — perhaps the 2010 census will shed some light about where they are in that bold prediction).

Back to the 7 extension though — would it have been so bad to try out Bus Rapid Transit in a part of the city that doesn’t even have the infrastructure to support an expensive subway project? Or is the dirty secret about BRT that everyone knows in their heart of hearts that it’s kind of lame? Think about what a $2 billion bond could have done for other transportation projects — even current transportation projects — even current transportation projects in Manhattan (East Harlem seems like a good candidate for some wealth creation — and people actually live there already!).